Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:46:01 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -5.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (3.05%) that the highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 28, 2026, will reach 28°C, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal patterns for the region.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unusual heatwave hits southeastern Brazil in late June, driven by strong high-pressure systems or El Niño-induced warming patterns. Unseasonably warm air masses from the Amazon or Atlantic could push temperatures above typical June averages.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical June averages in Sao Paulo (13-22°C), with persistent cloud cover, cold fronts, or La Niña-driven cooler conditions suppressing peak temperatures. Climate trends suggest June is relatively cool, making 28°C an outlier.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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