This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:46:01 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market reflects a low probability (3.05%) that the highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 28, 2026, will reach 28°C, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal patterns for the region.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unusual heatwave hits southeastern Brazil in late June, driven by strong high-pressure systems or El Niño-induced warming patterns. Unseasonably warm air masses from the Amazon or Atlantic could push temperatures above typical June averages.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical June averages in Sao Paulo (13-22°C), with persistent cloud cover, cold fronts, or La Niña-driven cooler conditions suppressing peak temperatures. Climate trends suggest June is relatively cool, making 28°C an outlier.
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Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 3.1% while ORYN AI estimates 3%.
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