Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to temperature data post-resolution (prior to final datapoint publication)
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:15:21 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
43%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
1.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 250.0¢
Entry: 40-45
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a 42.5% probability that the highest temperature in São Paulo on June 28, 2026, will reach 26°C, based on historical climatological data and current weather trends. The resolution hinges on precise meteorological measurements from the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station.
A bullish scenario suggests São Paulo may experience unseasonably warm conditions on June 28, 2026, due to a persistent high-pressure system, reduced cloud cover, or regional heatwave patterns. Historical data shows occasional spikes in late June temperatures, supporting a potential resolution at or above 26°C.
A bearish scenario indicates cooler-than-expected temperatures, driven by atypical cold fronts, increased rainfall, or cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. June in São Paulo typically averages around 22-24°C, making 26°C an optimistic upper-bound for this period.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
