This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground before market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 6:45:26 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
11%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market probability of 10.50% suggests low confidence that the highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 28, 2026, will reach exactly 24°C. Historical climate data for late June in Sao Paulo indicates typical high temperatures in the low 20s°C, making 24°C an outlier scenario.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unusual heatwave or atmospheric blocking pattern elevates temperatures beyond typical June averages. Persistent high-pressure systems or advective warming from northern regions could push the high to 24°C. Climate change trends may also contribute to marginally higher baseline temperatures.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical climatology, as late June in Sao Paulo averages highs of 21-23°C with rare spikes to 24°C. Weather models for the region show no significant anomalies, and late June is not peak heat season. Data revisions are unlikely to alter this outcome materially.
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Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 11% while ORYN AI estimates 10.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
