Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate data revisions post-resolution deadline
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:08:49 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 11-16
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (12%) that the highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 27, 2026, will reach 22°C at the Guarulhos International Airport Station. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely given typical winter conditions in the region.
A warming trend or unusual weather pattern could push temperatures to 22°C, driven by a strong El Niño effect or an atypical heatwave in June. Brazil has experienced record temperatures in recent years, including in winter months, making this scenario plausible but low-probability.
Standard winter conditions in Sao Paulo typically yield maximum temperatures between 18-20°C in June, making 22°C an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cooler-than-average air masses would further reduce the likelihood of this outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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