This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate data revisions post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/26/2026, 1:08:49 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
14%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.3
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (12%) that the highest temperature in Sao Paulo on June 27, 2026, will reach 22°C at the Guarulhos International Airport Station. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely given typical winter conditions in the region.
A warming trend or unusual weather pattern could push temperatures to 22°C, driven by a strong El Niño effect or an atypical heatwave in June. Brazil has experienced record temperatures in recent years, including in winter months, making this scenario plausible but low-probability.
Standard winter conditions in Sao Paulo typically yield maximum temperatures between 18-20°C in June, making 22°C an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cooler-than-average air masses would further reduce the likelihood of this outcome.
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Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 13.5% while ORYN AI estimates 12%.
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