Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_delays
AI updated 6/29/2026, 3:30:30 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Weather patterns in San Francisco may be influenced by global climate trends, which could also impact crude oil prices (e.g., 'Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?')
correlates · strength 60%
Geopolitical events, such as those affecting the Strait of Hormuz (e.g., 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?' and 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?'), are unlikely to directly impact San Francisco's temperature
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,386,777
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for San Francisco's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, being 57°F or below has a low probability (1.50%) based on historical climate trends and seasonal patterns. The resolution depends on real-time meteorological data from Wunderground, which may introduce variability.
Historical June data for San Francisco shows a mean high of ~67°F, with 57°F representing a cooler-than-average day. Unseasonable weather patterns, such as marine layer persistence or unusual cloud cover, could push the high below 57°F. Long-term climate trends suggest slight cooling in the Bay Area, though this is not a dominant factor.
San Francisco's June climate is typically mild but rarely drops below 57°F for daily highs. Heatwaves or offshore winds (e.g., Diablo winds) could elevate temperatures well above this threshold. Urban heat island effects or climate change trends may further reduce the likelihood of such a cool day.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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