This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions to historical temperatures after market resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:30:55 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
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ORYN Consensus
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Signal Score
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Opportunity
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ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market indicates an extremely low probability (0.25%) that San Francisco International Airport will record a high temperature of 80°F or higher on June 28, 2026. Historical climate data for late June in San Francisco suggests this outcome is highly unlikely.
A rare heatwave could push temperatures above 80°F, driven by anomalous high-pressure systems or Santa Ana-like wind patterns. Climate change may slightly increase the odds of extreme heat events, though San Francisco's coastal moderation typically prevents such spikes.
San Francisco's Mediterranean climate and coastal influence make temperatures above 80°F in late June statistically rare. The 0.25% probability aligns with historical averages, where highs typically range between 65-75°F in late June.
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Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 80°F or higher on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.3% while ORYN AI estimates 0.3%.
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