This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions to temperature records prior to resolution
AI updated 6/27/2026, 6:00:16 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates a low probability (3.95%) that San Francisco's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will fall within the 76-77°F range. Historical climate data suggests this range is uncommon for late June in the city.
If a warm offshore wind pattern or heat dome develops in late June 2026, San Francisco could experience an unseasonably warm day, pushing the high into the 76-77°F range. Such events, while rare, have occurred in the past during similar periods.
Climatologically, San Francisco's average high in late June is around 65-70°F, with temperatures rarely exceeding 75°F. A stable marine layer or cooler-than-average conditions would make the 76-77°F range highly unlikely.
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Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 4% while ORYN AI estimates 4%.
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