Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential late-season heatwave not reflected in historical data
Calibrated 100% · raw 385% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:15:17 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
99%
ORYN Consensus
95%
Signal Score
-3.9
Opportunity
3.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,311,478
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -385.0¢
Entry: 96-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market strongly favors a high temperature in San Francisco on June 28, 2026, between 72-73°F, with a 95.45% probability. Historical climate data and seasonal trends strongly support this range for late June.
Late June in San Francisco typically features high temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s°F due to stable coastal influences and minimal extreme heat events. The 72-73°F range aligns closely with historical averages (e.g., 30-year mean of 71°F for late June), reducing the likelihood of extreme deviations.
Unseasonable heatwaves or offshore wind events (e.g., Diablo winds) could push temperatures above 73°F, though such occurrences in late June are historically rare. Climate change may slightly increase variability, but the market's high probability suggests minimal risk of this outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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