This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Unpredictable short-term weather anomalies (e.g., sudden heat spikes)
AI updated 6/26/2026, 8:00:30 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
4.9
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of San Francisco's highest temperature on June 26, 2026, falling between 72-73°F is extremely low (0.10%) based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. Historical averages for late June in San Francisco typically range between 65-70°F, making this range highly unlikely.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unusual weather pattern, such as a heatwave or strong offshore flow, pushes temperatures above the historical average. However, such events are rare in San Francisco during late June, and current forecasts do not indicate significant deviations from normal conditions.
The bearish case is strongly supported by San Francisco's Mediterranean climate, which rarely experiences temperatures above 70°F in late June. Historical data, oceanic influences, and typical June weather patterns make temperatures in the 72-73°F range highly improbable, with the most likely range being 65-70°F.
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Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 26? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.1% while ORYN AI estimates 5%.
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