Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable short-term weather anomalies (e.g., sudden heat spikes)
Calibrated 100% · raw 495% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 8:00:30 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
+5.0
Opportunity
4.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 495.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
48 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of San Francisco's highest temperature on June 26, 2026, falling between 72-73°F is extremely low (0.10%) based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. Historical averages for late June in San Francisco typically range between 65-70°F, making this range highly unlikely.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unusual weather pattern, such as a heatwave or strong offshore flow, pushes temperatures above the historical average. However, such events are rare in San Francisco during late June, and current forecasts do not indicate significant deviations from normal conditions.
The bearish case is strongly supported by San Francisco's Mediterranean climate, which rarely experiences temperatures above 70°F in late June. Historical data, oceanic influences, and typical June weather patterns make temperatures in the 72-73°F range highly improbable, with the most likely range being 65-70°F.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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