Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions to historical temperature records after market resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 11:00:32 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
28%
ORYN Consensus
25%
Signal Score
-2.5
Opportunity
1.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,512,208
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -250.0¢
Entry: 25-31
—
Resolution
23h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a 27.5% probability that the highest temperature in Qingdao on June 30, 2026, will reach 28°C. Historical June 30 temperature data for Qingdao suggests this outcome is plausible but not the most likely scenario.
Qingdao may experience a heatwave in late June 2026 due to climate trends or unusual weather patterns, pushing the highest temperature to 28°C. Unseasonably warm ocean currents or atmospheric conditions could contribute to this outcome.
Historical climate data for Qingdao in late June typically shows highs in the low-to-mid 20s°C, making 28°C an outlier. Cooler ocean currents, cloud cover, or seasonal monsoon patterns could suppress temperatures below 28°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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