This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Late-season cold snaps from Siberian air masses
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:15:38 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
22%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 22% probability that Qingdao's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 30°C, based on historical climate data for late June, which typically sees highs around 25-28°C. This low probability reflects Qingdao's coastal temperate climate, where extreme heat is rare.
A 30°C peak in Qingdao is plausible if an anomalous heatwave affects northern China in late June, driven by persistent high-pressure systems or southerly warm air advection. Unusually calm sea conditions or urban heat island effects could also elevate temperatures beyond typical ranges.
Qingdao's maritime climate and late-June climatology strongly favor temperatures below 30°C, with historical averages near 25-28°C. Persistent onshore winds or cloud cover would suppress daytime heating, making 30°C highly unlikely under normal meteorological conditions.
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Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 22% while ORYN AI estimates 22%.
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