Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Late-season cold snaps from Siberian air masses
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:15:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
22%
ORYN Consensus
22%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 19-25
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 22% probability that Qingdao's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 30°C, based on historical climate data for late June, which typically sees highs around 25-28°C. This low probability reflects Qingdao's coastal temperate climate, where extreme heat is rare.
A 30°C peak in Qingdao is plausible if an anomalous heatwave affects northern China in late June, driven by persistent high-pressure systems or southerly warm air advection. Unusually calm sea conditions or urban heat island effects could also elevate temperatures beyond typical ranges.
Qingdao's maritime climate and late-June climatology strongly favor temperatures below 30°C, with historical averages near 25-28°C. Persistent onshore winds or cloud cover would suppress daytime heating, making 30°C highly unlikely under normal meteorological conditions.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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