This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_uncertainty
AI updated 6/26/2026, 4:15:43 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
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ORYN Consensus
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Signal Score
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Opportunity
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ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates an extremely low probability (0.20%) that Qingdao's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 26°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends for Qingdao in late June suggest this outcome is highly unlikely.
A rare heatwave could push temperatures to 26°C, driven by unusual high-pressure systems or late-season El Niño effects. Qingdao's coastal geography might amplify heat retention under specific wind patterns, though this is historically anomalous.
Qingdao's coastal climate in June typically averages 20-24°C, with highs rarely exceeding 25°C. Persistent marine influence, cloud cover, or monsoon-related rainfall would suppress temperatures below 26°C. Climate normals for Qingdao Airport show a 95%+ probability of max temps ≤25°C for this date.
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Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.2% while ORYN AI estimates 0.2%.
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