Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 700% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 5:30:24 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 37% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
28%
ORYN Consensus
21%
Signal Score
-7.0
Opportunity
6.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Weather patterns in Qingdao may be influenced by global climate trends, which could also impact crude oil demand and shipping traffic, including the Strait of Hormuz.
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated to Putin's presidency, Manifold.love user growth, or specific daily ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,697,790
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -700.0¢
Entry: 25-31
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a 20.5% probability that Qingdao's highest temperature on July 4, 2026, will reach at least 30°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends in Qingdao indicate this is a low-probability outcome given the region's typical summer temperatures.
Qingdao experiences an unseasonably warm spell due to a strong high-pressure system, subtropical moisture influx, or a heat dome event, pushing temperatures to or above 30°C. Urban heat island effects or localized microclimatic conditions could also contribute to exceeding this threshold.
Qingdao remains under the influence of marine-influenced weather patterns, such as persistent onshore winds or cloud cover, keeping temperatures below 30°C. La Niña or neutral ENSO conditions could suppress extreme heat events in the region during early July.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.