Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate data revisions post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/29/2026, 4:31:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is influenced by global events and crude oil prices, not local weather in Qingdao
correlates · strength 60%
Weather in Qingdao is unrelated to Strait of Hormuz traffic or geopolitical events like Putin's presidency
correlates · strength 60%
Qingdao temperature is also unrelated to tech-related metrics like Manifold.love daily active users
correlates · strength 60%
Crude Oil prices may have an indirect relationship with global economic conditions, but no direct correlation with local weather in Qingdao
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 35.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
4
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a low probability (0.75%) that Qingdao's highest temperature on July 1, 2026, will reach 22°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is unlikely given typical weather patterns for the region.
A bullish outcome could occur if an unusual weather event, such as a heatwave or strong southerly winds, brings unseasonably warm temperatures to Qingdao in early July 2026. El Niño-like conditions or localized atmospheric anomalies might also elevate temperatures beyond the seasonal norm.
A bearish outcome is more likely due to Qingdao's temperate maritime climate, where July temperatures typically range between 18-24°C. Persistent cloud cover, oceanic influence, or cold air intrusions from the north could suppress the peak temperature below 22°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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