Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Early-season heatwaves are historically rare in Paris (lower frequency than mid-summer)
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:30:54 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
8%
ORYN Consensus
9%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,073,861
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 50.0¢
Entry: 5-11
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns an 8.50% probability that Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station records a highest temperature of at least 30°C on June 30, 2026. Historical climatological data and seasonal trends suggest this is a low-probability event for late June.
A persistent high-pressure system over Western Europe, combined with a heatwave originating from North Africa or Iberia, could push temperatures in Paris to 30°C+ by late June. Early-season heatwaves in recent years (e.g., 2019, 2022) demonstrate that such conditions are possible, albeit not guaranteed.
Climatologically, late June in Paris typically features average highs around 23-25°C, with extreme heat (30°C+) more common in July-August. Overcast conditions, Atlantic air masses, or unseasonable rainfall could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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