Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Measurement inaccuracies in Wunderground data
AI updated 6/29/2026, 7:15:37 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
12%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,468,448
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 9-15
—
Resolution
1h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market assigns a 14% probability that the highest temperature in Paris on June 29, 2026, will reach 26°C, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal patterns. This low probability suggests skepticism about extreme heat occurring on that specific date.
A bullish scenario could unfold if a strong high-pressure system or heatwave affects Western Europe in late June 2026, pushing temperatures above the seasonal average. Unusual atmospheric conditions, such as a Saharan air intrusion, could elevate the likelihood of reaching 26°C.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical data; Paris rarely exceeds 26°C in late June, with average highs around 22-24°C. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cooler-than-average air masses could suppress temperatures further, making 26°C unlikely.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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