Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions to historical temperatures after market resolution
AI updated 7/1/2026, 5:00:31 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,274,469
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 1-6
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low probability (3.50%) that Paris will reach a high temperature of 31°C on July 3, 2026, based on historical temperature data for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station. This suggests skepticism about extreme heat occurring on that specific date.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an early-season heatwave develops in Europe during summer 2026, driven by high-pressure systems or a persistent anticyclone over the continent. Climate trends indicate increasing temperatures, which may marginally raise the likelihood of a 31°C day in Paris. Additionally, urban heat island effects could contribute to higher local temperatures.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Paris's historical temperature data for early July, where highs rarely exceed 30°C. Cool oceanic influences from the Atlantic or persistent cloud cover could suppress temperatures. Furthermore, climate variability may not align with extreme heat predictions for this specific date.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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