Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: potential_temperature_revisions
Calibrated 100% · raw 8480% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 1:31:19 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
85%
Signal Score
+84.8
Opportunity
74.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,296
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 8480.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
11 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts an 85% probability that the highest temperature in Panama City on June 29, 2026, will exceed 28°C. Historical climate data for June in Panama City suggests high temperatures are typical, favoring the bear case.
June is part of Panama City's dry season, with average highs around 31-32°C. If regional weather patterns persist, temperatures could reach or exceed 29°C, supporting the bull case that the threshold will not be met.
Unseasonable weather patterns, such as increased cloud cover or rainfall, could suppress daytime temperatures below 28°C. However, this is statistically less likely given historical June trends.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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