Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground after market closure
Calibrated 100% · raw 945% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 3:16:16 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
+9.4
Opportunity
7.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,386,132
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 945.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a low probability (12.5%) that New York City's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will fall within the 94-95°F range. Historical June 30 temperatures at LaGuardia Airport indicate this range is relatively rare but not unprecedented.
A bullish scenario could unfold if a heatwave or high-pressure system pushes temperatures into the 94-95°F range. Climate trends showing increasing summer extremes in the Northeast may also support this outcome. Late-season heat buildup could align with the forecast.
A bearish outcome is more likely given the rarity of 94-95°F readings on June 30 in NYC. Cooler-than-average conditions, cloud cover, or rain could suppress temperatures below 94°F. Historical averages (mid-80s°F) favor a lower range.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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