Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 175% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 1:31:08 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
4%
Signal Score
+1.8
Opportunity
1.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
963,007
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 175.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
9 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low 3.95% probability that New York City's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will fall within the 90-91°F range. Historical climate data suggests this is an unlikely outcome given seasonal trends.
Climate change may contribute to higher-than-average temperatures in late June, increasing the likelihood of a 90-91°F peak. Unusual weather patterns, such as a heat dome or prolonged anticyclonic conditions, could push temperatures into this range.
Late June in NYC typically averages highs in the mid-80s°F, making 90-91°F an extreme outlier. Persistent cloud cover, coastal influence, or unseasonably cool air masses could suppress temperatures below this threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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