Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change-induced temperature volatility
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:00:35 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
34%
ORYN Consensus
32%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 31-36
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market suggests a 33.5% probability that the highest temperature in New York City on June 28, 2026, will fall within the 80-81°F range based on historical temperature data and seasonal trends. This is a low-probability outcome given historical June 28 temperature distributions for LaGuardia Airport.
A bullish outcome could result from an early-season heatwave, persistent high-pressure systems, or climate anomalies driving temperatures above historical averages. Unusually warm ocean currents or urban heat island effects may also contribute to elevated temperatures.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical data, as June 28 temperatures at LaGuardia Airport typically range between 70-85°F with a mean closer to 78°F. Cooler-than-average weather patterns, cloud cover, or precipitation could suppress peak temperatures below 80°F.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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