This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate change-induced temperature volatility
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:00:35 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
34%
ORYN Consensus
32%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market suggests a 33.5% probability that the highest temperature in New York City on June 28, 2026, will fall within the 80-81°F range based on historical temperature data and seasonal trends. This is a low-probability outcome given historical June 28 temperature distributions for LaGuardia Airport.
A bullish outcome could result from an early-season heatwave, persistent high-pressure systems, or climate anomalies driving temperatures above historical averages. Unusually warm ocean currents or urban heat island effects may also contribute to elevated temperatures.
A bearish outcome is more likely given historical data, as June 28 temperatures at LaGuardia Airport typically range between 70-85°F with a mean closer to 78°F. Cooler-than-average weather patterns, cloud cover, or precipitation could suppress peak temperatures below 80°F.
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Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 33.5% while ORYN AI estimates 32%.
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