This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate model inaccuracies for June 2026
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:30:19 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
40%
ORYN Consensus
41%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.2
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market for NYC's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, currently shows a 39.5% probability of falling within the 78-79°F range. This reflects moderate uncertainty given historical June temperature variability in the region.
Temperatures trend warmer than historical averages due to early-season heatwave conditions, with persistent high-pressure systems driving sustained warmth. La Niña-like atmospheric patterns could amplify regional heating, increasing odds of 78-79°F.
Cooler-than-expected temperatures from lingering polar air masses or unexpected cloud cover suppress daytime highs. Unseasonable rainfall or northerly wind patterns could push the peak below the target range, favoring 76-77°F.
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Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 39.5% while ORYN AI estimates 41%.
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