Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revisions post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:30:45 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.9
Opportunity
0.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 95.0¢
Entry: 0-5
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 2.5% probability that Munich Airport Station will record a high temperature of 35°C or higher on June 29, 2026, indicating very low historical or modeled likelihood. This aligns with Munich's climate norms, where 35°C highs are rare but not unprecedented.
A heatwave could push temperatures to 35°C, driven by persistent high-pressure systems or Saharan air intrusions. Munich has recorded 35°C+ in recent years (e.g., 2019, 2022), suggesting non-zero risk. Early-season heatwaves may also skew daily maxima upward.
Munich's historical June highs rarely exceed 30°C, with 35°C+ occurring <1% of the time. Climate trends show no significant acceleration in extreme heat for the region by 2026. Persistent cloud cover or Atlantic airflow could suppress temperatures below 30°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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