This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data revisions post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:30:45 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
2%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.9
Opportunity
0.9
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 2.5% probability that Munich Airport Station will record a high temperature of 35°C or higher on June 29, 2026, indicating very low historical or modeled likelihood. This aligns with Munich's climate norms, where 35°C highs are rare but not unprecedented.
A heatwave could push temperatures to 35°C, driven by persistent high-pressure systems or Saharan air intrusions. Munich has recorded 35°C+ in recent years (e.g., 2019, 2022), suggesting non-zero risk. Early-season heatwaves may also skew daily maxima upward.
Munich's historical June highs rarely exceed 30°C, with 35°C+ occurring <1% of the time. Climate trends show no significant acceleration in extreme heat for the region by 2026. Persistent cloud cover or Atlantic airflow could suppress temperatures below 30°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 1.6% while ORYN AI estimates 2.5%.
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