This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_risks
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:30:38 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (2.6%) that Munich Airport Station records a highest temperature of 34°C on June 29, 2026. Historical climate data suggests this is an extreme threshold unlikely to be met.
A rare heatwave in late June could push temperatures to 34°C, driven by persistent high-pressure systems and southerly wind patterns. Munich has recorded 34°C in late June historically (e.g., 2019), though this is rare.
Climate trends show Munich's late June temperatures rarely exceed 30°C, with 34°C being an outlier. Persistent cloud cover or cooler Atlantic airflows could suppress temperatures below this threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 2.5% while ORYN AI estimates 3%.
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