This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_revision_lag
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:45:45 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
2.3
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market assigns a 2.85% probability that Munich's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 33°C. Historical data and seasonal trends suggest this is highly unlikely, given Munich's typical June climate.
A rare heatwave could push temperatures to 33°C, driven by persistent high-pressure systems over Central Europe or a strong Saharan air intrusion. Climate change may slightly increase the odds of extreme heat events, though Munich's inland location and altitude moderate such extremes.
June temperatures in Munich average around 22-24°C, with 33°C being an outlier. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or a cooler-than-average air mass would suppress temperatures well below the threshold. Long-term climate trends do not favor such extreme heat in late June.
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Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.6% while ORYN AI estimates 3%.
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