Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Revisions to historical temperature data post-resolution
Calibrated 100% · raw 300% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 2:15:26 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
65%
ORYN Consensus
68%
Signal Score
+3.0
Opportunity
2.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 300.0¢
Entry: 62-68
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a 65% probability that Munich's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 36°C. Historical trends and seasonal climate data support this likelihood, though extreme weather variability introduces uncertainty.
Climate change trends suggest increasing frequency of heatwaves in Central Europe, with Munich experiencing more days exceeding 35°C in recent years. June 27 falls within the peak summer heat period, historically correlating with higher temperatures. Persistent high-pressure systems over Europe could push temperatures to 36°C.
June 27 is early in the summer season, and Munich's historical data shows fewer extreme heat days in late June compared to July-August. Unseasonable weather patterns, such as persistent cloud cover or cold fronts, could suppress temperatures below 36°C. Short-term meteorological anomalies could also delay peak heat.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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