Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: No usable observation or forecast detail is present in the provided page content, increasing uncertainty
Calibrated 100% · raw 350% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 4:37:49 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 29% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
13%
ORYN Consensus
16%
Signal Score
+3.5
Opportunity
1.6
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Domain separation: The Manifold daily active users market is platform/product adoption driven and has essentially no fundamental relationship to Munich temperature, aside from possible trivial effects from user attention or seasonal activity.
correlates · strength 60%
Time-horizon mismatch: The Munich July 5 temperature market is a short-dated local weather event, while Putin-out-by-2026 and Hormuz-by-2026 markets are long-horizon political/geopolitical markets, limiting meaningful relationship beyond general portfolio diversification.
correlates · strength 60%
Weather–energy linkage: The Munich 26°C temperature market can be indirectly related to crude oil markets through summer heat effects on energy demand, but the connection is weak and driven by broader macro/weather patterns rather than direct causation.
correlates · strength 60%
Geopolitical supply chain theme: The Strait of Hormuz traffic and 40-ships transit markets are tightly related to each other and to crude oil price markets; Munich temperature is largely orthogonal to these, sharing at most a very weak common exposure to global climate or macro shocks.
correlates · strength 60%
Risk-on/risk-off macro sentiment: Markets about Putin leaving office, Strait of Hormuz normalization, and crude oil hitting $60 can co-move via geopolitical risk sentiment; the Munich weather market is mostly independent and serves as a low-correlation event market.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,486,298
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 1000.0¢
Entry: 3-9
—
Resolution
22h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market asks whether Munich Airport Station's rounded daily high on July 5, 2026 will be exactly 26°C, with Weather Underground as the resolver. The provided page content currently shows no recorded daily observations, so the analysis must rely on climatological expectation rather than observed data; a single exact-degree outcome is usually a relatively narrow slice of the temperature distribution, making 13.5% plausible but somewhat low if forecast conditions center near the mid-20s.
Early July in the Munich area often produces daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s C, putting 26°C well within a common summer range. Because resolution uses whole-degree Celsius rounding from the station's recorded daily high, any actual maximum landing near 26°C exactly benefits from discretization and can make this specific bin more likely than a continuous-value framing would suggest.
An exact 26°C outcome is still only one bucket among many plausible nearby highs such as 24°C, 25°C, 27°C, or 28°C, so base-rate concentration on a single degree is limited. With no current observation data on the page and weather several days out subject to forecast error, the chance mass may be spread broadly enough that 13.5% is fair or even slightly high.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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