Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_uncertainty
AI updated 6/28/2026, 6:30:28 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
12%
ORYN Consensus
12%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,216,921
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 8-15
—
Resolution
14h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market indicates a low 11.50% probability that Moscow's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 20°C, suggesting skepticism about extreme warmth for that date. Historical NOAA data for late June in Moscow typically shows average highs below 20°C, supporting the low probability.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an unexpected heatwave or prolonged high-pressure system over Russia drives temperatures significantly above seasonal norms. Unusual atmospheric conditions or early-season heat anomalies could push the high to 20°C. Climate trends showing gradual warming may also marginally increase odds.
The bear case relies on Moscow's historical climate patterns, where late June highs rarely exceed 18-19°C. Persistent cloud cover, rain, or cooler air masses from northern latitudes would suppress temperatures. NOAA's precision to whole degrees Celsius further reduces the likelihood of hitting the exact 20°C threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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