This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate change-induced variability in temperature norms
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:32:38 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.3
Opportunity
1.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a 1.55% chance that Moscow's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 15°C, based on historical NOAA data trends for late June. Historical averages and recent climate patterns suggest this outcome is unlikely.
Unseasonably warm weather patterns, such as a strong high-pressure system or heatwave, could push temperatures to 15°C or higher, aligning with recent trends of increasing summer temperatures in Moscow. Anomalous atmospheric conditions or early-season heat buildup could also contribute.
Climatological norms for late June in Moscow typically range between 18-22°C for highs, making 15°C unusually cool. Persistent cloud cover, cold air advection, or unseasonable rainfall could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.3% while ORYN AI estimates 1.6%.
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