Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate change-induced variability in temperature norms
Calibrated 100% · raw 130% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:32:38 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.3
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 130.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
14 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a 1.55% chance that Moscow's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 15°C, based on historical NOAA data trends for late June. Historical averages and recent climate patterns suggest this outcome is unlikely.
Unseasonably warm weather patterns, such as a strong high-pressure system or heatwave, could push temperatures to 15°C or higher, aligning with recent trends of increasing summer temperatures in Moscow. Anomalous atmospheric conditions or early-season heat buildup could also contribute.
Climatological norms for late June in Moscow typically range between 18-22°C for highs, making 15°C unusually cool. Persistent cloud cover, cold air advection, or unseasonable rainfall could suppress temperatures below the threshold.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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