This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Potential revisions to temperature data by Wunderground after resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:31:30 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.2
Opportunity
0.2
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates a very low probability (0.70%) that Milan's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 42°C based on historical temperature trends and current climate patterns. The resolution depends on real-time data from Wunderground's Malpensa station.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an extreme heatwave develops in late June 2026, driven by a strong high-pressure system over Europe or a Saharan air intrusion. Climate change trends may slightly increase the likelihood of such extreme temperatures compared to historical averages.
The bear case assumes standard late-June temperatures for Milan, which historically average around 25-30°C. Even in heatwave conditions, 42°C is an outlier, with the city's all-time record being 39.9°C (August 2021). No immediate climate anomalies suggest such an extreme event.
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Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.7% while ORYN AI estimates 0.5%.
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