Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential revisions to temperature data by Wunderground after resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:31:30 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
-0.2
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -20.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a very low probability (0.70%) that Milan's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 42°C based on historical temperature trends and current climate patterns. The resolution depends on real-time data from Wunderground's Malpensa station.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an extreme heatwave develops in late June 2026, driven by a strong high-pressure system over Europe or a Saharan air intrusion. Climate change trends may slightly increase the likelihood of such extreme temperatures compared to historical averages.
The bear case assumes standard late-June temperatures for Milan, which historically average around 25-30°C. Even in heatwave conditions, 42°C is an outlier, with the city's all-time record being 39.9°C (August 2021). No immediate climate anomalies suggest such an extreme event.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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