This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground (historical adjustments)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 4:31:11 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
5%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (3.4%) that Milan's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 38°C. Historical climate data suggests extreme heat at this threshold is rare for late June in Milan.
A bullish scenario could materialize if an exceptional heatwave, similar to the 2022 European heatwave, affects northern Italy in late June 2026. Unusual atmospheric blocking patterns or a strong African anticyclone could push temperatures to 38°C.
A bearish outcome is more likely given Milan's historical climate norms. Late June typically sees average highs of 28-30°C, with 38°C historically uncommon. Cooler-than-average conditions or cloud cover could suppress peak temperatures further.
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Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 4.9% while ORYN AI estimates 3.4%.
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