Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: La Niña conditions may reduce the likelihood of extreme heat in southern Europe
AI updated 7/3/2026, 5:03:34 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 29% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Geopolitical Event Impact on Energy Prices (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?, Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?, Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?)
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated Markets (Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?, Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?)
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,162,740
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 20.0¢
Entry: 0-6
—
Resolution
2d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market asks whether Milan's Malpensa airport will record a daily maximum temperature of exactly 38°C on July 5, 2026, a level near the historical July record for the region. The low 2.8% market probability reflects the extreme nature of this temperature, which typically requires a strong heatwave to achieve.
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of European heatwaves, making record-breaking temperatures more plausible each year. A persistent anticyclone from North Africa could push temperatures to 38°C or higher, especially if the first week of July aligns with a heat dome.
Milan's July average high is around 29-30°C, and 38°C is at the very tail of the historical distribution. Malpensa's location northwest of the city center is often slightly cooler, and early July typically precedes the peak of summer heat in mid-July to August.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
