Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unseasonable cold front suppressing high temperatures
AI updated 7/2/2026, 11:01:17 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.1
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024? is related to 'Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 4?' as both are low-probability events, and 'Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?' is related to 'Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 4?' as both are related to market volatility and uncertainty, and 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?' is related to 'Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 4?' as both are related to global economic trends and uncertainty, and 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?' is related to 'Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 4?' as both are related to global politics and uncertainty, and 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?' is related to 'Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 4?' as both are related to global economic trends and uncertainty
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
HIGH
EV 25.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
1
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market asks whether the highest temperature at Milan's Malpensa airport on July 4, 2026, will be exactly 30°C. Currently only 0.75% probability, reflecting the low likelihood of hitting a specific integer value in a continuous temperature distribution. Historical averages around 29–30°C suggest 30°C is plausible but still an unlikely precise outcome.
Milan's July average high is ~29.5°C, so 30°C is within normal range. Climate change may increase frequency of hotter days, and forecast models far out could still shift upward. If a heatwave occurs, the probability of reaching exactly 30°C rises.
Temperature measurements are rounded to whole degrees, making exact integer outcomes less likely than nearby intervals. Long-range weather predictability is low, and most days see highs a degree or two from the average. The 0.75% price already implies a very low chance.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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