Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Model uncertainty in seasonal and medium-range forecasts
Calibrated 100% · raw 155% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:47:55 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.6
Opportunity
1.4
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
r3
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,179,914
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 155.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
23h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market predicts whether the maximum temperature at Miami International Airport on July 4, 2026, reaches or exceeds 98°F, a level well above the typical July high of ~90°F. The current probability of 2.05% reflects the rarity of such extreme heat even in Miami's subtropical climate, though a strong heatwave or changing climate patterns could raise the risk. The market will resolve based on official Wunderground data, which records temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit.
Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme heat events, and Miami has broken several heat records in recent years. A persistent high-pressure system or a heatwave coinciding with July 4 could easily push temperatures above 98°F, especially if urban heat island effects amplify readings. Short-term forecast models may show anomalous warmth well in advance, giving traders an edge.
98°F is an extremely high bar for Miami, where the all-time July record is around 100°F and typical daily highs are near 90°F. A single day reaching that threshold requires near-perfect conditions (clear skies, dry air, strong solar insolation), which are uncommon in the humid subtropical environment. Historical data shows that 98°F has been reached only a handful of times in the past several decades, making the 2% probability plausible.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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