Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Narrow temperature window (only 1°F) increases difficulty of hitting target
Calibrated 100% · raw 4955% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:35:46 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+49.5
Opportunity
17.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Geopolitical Stability (Strait of Hormuz) affects Global Oil Prices (Crude Oil)
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Weather (Miami temperature) is unrelated to Geopolitical Events (Putin, Strait of Hormuz) and Tech Startup Performance (Manifold.love)
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,179,869
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 4955.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
23h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market bets on whether Miami's July 4 high temperature falls within a narrow 82-83°F range. At 1.4%, the probability reflects the rarity of such mild conditions during Miami's hottest month. Historical data shows typical highs near 90°F, making a cool outlier extremely unlikely.
Prolonged cloud cover, heavy rain, or a passing cold front could suppress the high into the low 80s. A few July 4 dates have recorded highs in this range, giving the event a small but non-zero chance. If forecasts show an unusually cool pattern, the probability could spike before resolution.
Miami's average July high is ~90°F, and daily readings almost always exceed 85°F. The 82-83°F window is extremely narrow, requiring a perfect alignment of cooling factors. Climate warming trends further reduce the likelihood of such low readings.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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