Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Measurement error or reporting delays from the resolution source
AI updated 7/3/2026, 1:34:57 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 29% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.1
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic is a key indicator for global trade and oil prices, which is related to Crude Oil (CL) prices. This is because a disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic can lead to increased oil prices. Additionally, the theme of 'uncertainty' is present in both the Miami temperature and the Putin presidency markets, as they are both uncertain events. The Manifold.love market is related to the theme of 'growth' and 'adoption', which is also present in the Crude Oil (CL) market as it is affected by global economic growth. The 40 ships transit market is related to the theme of 'infrastructure' and 'trade', which is also present in the Crude Oil (CL) market.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,162,740
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 5.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
1d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market bets on whether Miami's high temperature on July 4, 2026 will be 79°F or below, an extremely rare event given typical summer heat. Current market probability is 0.70%, reflecting the near-impossibility of such a cool day in Miami. Historical data shows the average high is ~90°F and the record low maximum is around 80°F.
An unusually strong cold front or persistent cloud cover could suppress temperatures, though such events are extremely rare in July. A tropical system or heavy rain could also keep temperatures low, but even then the high tends to stay above 80°F. The market probability may slightly underestimate the tail risk of a perfect setup for cool conditions.
Miami's July climate is consistently hot, with average highs near 90°F and very few days below 85°F. Reaching 79°F would require record-breaking cool conditions, which is statistically improbable. The current 0.70% already seems generous given historical precedents.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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