Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revisions to temperature records post-resolution deadline
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 3:45:22 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
27%
ORYN Consensus
25%
Signal Score
-1.5
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,150,260
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -150.0¢
Entry: 24-30
—
Resolution
17h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests a 27% probability that the highest temperature in Mexico City on June 29, 2026, will be exactly 23°C. This probability is below the 50% threshold, indicating skepticism toward the event occurring.
Historical climate data for Mexico City in late June indicates average high temperatures of 24-26°C, with occasional peaks near 28°C. A 23°C reading would align with cooler-than-average conditions, possibly due to unusual weather patterns like persistent cloud cover or cold fronts from North America.
The market's low probability reflects the rarity of 23°C as the daily maximum in late June, given the city's typical temperatures. Even minor deviations in weather systems (e.g., heatwaves) could push highs above 25°C, making 23°C an unlikely outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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