This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data_precision_limitations
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:46:07 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.4
Opportunity
1.3
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates a very low probability (1.55%) that Mexico City's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach or exceed 27°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends strongly suggest this outcome is unlikely.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unusual heatwave or weather anomaly pushes temperatures above 27°C. This might occur due to a prolonged high-pressure system, reduced cloud cover, or a late-season heat surge. However, such events are historically rare for Mexico City in late June.
The bear case aligns with historical averages, where Mexico City's late June temperatures typically range between 18-24°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average air masses would reinforce this outcome. No significant climate anomalies are currently forecasted to deviate from these norms.
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Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.6% while ORYN AI estimates 2%.
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