Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_precision_limitations
Calibrated 100% · raw 140% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 1:46:07 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.4
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 140.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
11
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a very low probability (1.55%) that Mexico City's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach or exceed 27°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends strongly suggest this outcome is unlikely.
A bullish scenario could unfold if an unusual heatwave or weather anomaly pushes temperatures above 27°C. This might occur due to a prolonged high-pressure system, reduced cloud cover, or a late-season heat surge. However, such events are historically rare for Mexico City in late June.
The bear case aligns with historical averages, where Mexico City's late June temperatures typically range between 18-24°C. Persistent cloud cover, rainfall, or cooler-than-average air masses would reinforce this outcome. No significant climate anomalies are currently forecasted to deviate from these norms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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