This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate data revisions post-resolution (though unlikely to alter high-temperature records)
AI updated 6/28/2026, 12:30:21 AM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
12%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low 11.50% probability that Mexico City's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 22°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. Historical averages suggest temperatures typically range between 18-21°C in late June, making 22°C an outlier scenario.
A bullish outcome could materialize if an unusual heatwave or atmospheric conditions (e.g., high-pressure systems, reduced cloud cover) push temperatures above the historical average. Climate change trends may also marginally increase the likelihood of such events, though not significantly for this specific date.
The bearish outcome is more plausible given Mexico City's climate patterns, which rarely exceed 22°C in late June. Cooler-than-average conditions, increased cloud cover, or rainfall could suppress peak temperatures below 22°C. Historical data from the past decade supports this conservative outlook.
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Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 11.5% while ORYN AI estimates 11%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
