Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate data revisions post-resolution (though unlikely to alter high-temperature records)
AI updated 6/28/2026, 12:30:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
12%
ORYN Consensus
11%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -50.0¢
Entry: 8-15
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market predicts a low 11.50% probability that Mexico City's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 22°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. Historical averages suggest temperatures typically range between 18-21°C in late June, making 22°C an outlier scenario.
A bullish outcome could materialize if an unusual heatwave or atmospheric conditions (e.g., high-pressure systems, reduced cloud cover) push temperatures above the historical average. Climate change trends may also marginally increase the likelihood of such events, though not significantly for this specific date.
The bearish outcome is more plausible given Mexico City's climate patterns, which rarely exceed 22°C in late June. Cooler-than-average conditions, increased cloud cover, or rainfall could suppress peak temperatures below 22°C. Historical data from the past decade supports this conservative outlook.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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