Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground after resolution date
AI updated 6/28/2026, 12:45:40 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
-0.1
Opportunity
0.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -10.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
7
Price history
20 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for a 19°C high temperature in Mexico City on June 28, 2026, reflects an extremely low probability (0.30%) based on historical climate data and seasonal trends. Historical averages for late June in Mexico City suggest temperatures are more likely to exceed 19°C, with typical highs ranging between 22-26°C.
A bullish case could emerge if an unusual cold front or persistent cloud cover suppresses temperatures below the seasonal average. Unseasonably wet conditions or a rare polar air mass intrusion might also push highs toward 19°C, though such scenarios are statistically uncommon for Mexico City in late June.
The bear case is strongly supported by climate norms: Mexico City’s late June high temperatures historically cluster around 22-26°C, with 19°C being atypically low. Factors like urban heat island effects, regional warming trends, or early heatwaves would further reduce the likelihood of such a low temperature.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
