This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Potential measurement errors or data revisions
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:15:28 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.8
Opportunity
1.7
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a very low (0.20%) probability that Mexico City's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will be 18°C or below. Historical climate data suggests this outcome is highly unlikely given typical June temperatures in the region.
Unseasonably cool weather patterns, such as a strong cold front or unusual atmospheric conditions, could push temperatures below 18°C. Extremely rare weather anomalies or measurement errors might also support this outcome.
Standard June weather in Mexico City typically ranges between 18-28°C, with historical averages near 22°C. No significant climate anomalies are forecast, making temperatures below 18°C improbable.
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Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C or below on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.2% while ORYN AI estimates 2%.
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