Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unseasonable cold front
AI updated 7/3/2026, 2:30:53 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
-0.3
Opportunity
0.2
Graph Relationships
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Economic Indicator Impact
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,505,203
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV -35.0¢
Entry: 0-4
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
3 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market is asking whether the highest temperature in Mexico City on July 4, 2026, will be 20°C. The resolution source for this market is Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport Station.
The temperature in Mexico City on July 4, 2026, is expected to reach 20°C due to typical summer weather patterns in the region.
The temperature in Mexico City on July 4, 2026, is unlikely to reach 20°C as the average high temperature for July is around 22°C, but temperatures can vary significantly from year to year.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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