This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution cutoff
AI updated 6/27/2026, 6:00:36 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
4%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
-1.8
Opportunity
1.5
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of Manila reaching 36°C on June 29, 2026, is currently very low at 2.10%, indicating minimal market confidence in extreme heat conditions for that date. Historical temperature trends for Manila in late June suggest maximum temperatures typically range between 31-34°C, with 36°C being an outlier.
A bullish outcome could occur if an anomalous weather pattern, such as a strong high-pressure system or prolonged El Niño conditions, drives temperatures significantly above historical averages. Early-season heatwaves or localized urban heat island effects could also contribute to surpassing 36°C.
The bearish case is supported by Manila's climatological norms, where late June temperatures rarely exceed 35°C, with a historical mean maximum around 33°C. Persistent cloud cover, monsoon activity, or unseasonable rainfall could suppress peak temperatures below the 36°C threshold.
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Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 3.9% while ORYN AI estimates 2.1%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
