This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revisions from Wunderground post-resolution deadline
AI updated 6/27/2026, 12:30:26 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
0%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market predicts a low probability (0.25%) that Manila's highest temperature on June 28, 2026, will reach 27°C. Historical climate data suggests this temperature is unusually low for the region during late June.
Manila could hit 27°C if a rare cool spell or unusual weather pattern (e.g., monsoon delays or typhoon-related cloud cover) suppresses temperatures below the seasonal norm of 30-34°C. Such anomalies, while uncommon, are not impossible in tropical climates.
Manila’s late June climate typically ranges between 28-35°C, with 27°C being at the lower end of historical records. The likelihood of such a cool day is minimal without exceptional circumstances, making the 27°C threshold highly improbable.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 28? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.3% while ORYN AI estimates 0.3%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
