This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Data revision delays from Wunderground
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:15:41 PM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
44%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.2
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market indicates a 43.5% probability that Manila's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 32°C, based on historical weather patterns and current climate trends. The resolution depends on real-time data from Wunderground, with no adjustments permitted after the first published datapoint.
Above-average temperatures in May-June 2026 due to El Niño conditions or a strong high-pressure system could push Manila's daily high to 32°C. Persistent urban heat island effects or localized weather anomalies (e.g., delayed monsoon onset) may also contribute to elevated temperatures.
Cooler-than-expected conditions from an early monsoon onset, increased cloud cover, or a tropical depression passing near the Philippines could suppress daytime highs below 32°C. La Niña development or unseasonal rainfall patterns would further reduce the likelihood.
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Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 43.5% while ORYN AI estimates 45%.
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