Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data revision delays from Wunderground
Calibrated 100% · raw 150% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/26/2026, 9:15:41 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
44%
ORYN Consensus
45%
Signal Score
+1.5
Opportunity
1.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 150.0¢
Entry: 40-46
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market indicates a 43.5% probability that Manila's highest temperature on June 27, 2026, will reach 32°C, based on historical weather patterns and current climate trends. The resolution depends on real-time data from Wunderground, with no adjustments permitted after the first published datapoint.
Above-average temperatures in May-June 2026 due to El Niño conditions or a strong high-pressure system could push Manila's daily high to 32°C. Persistent urban heat island effects or localized weather anomalies (e.g., delayed monsoon onset) may also contribute to elevated temperatures.
Cooler-than-expected conditions from an early monsoon onset, increased cloud cover, or a tropical depression passing near the Philippines could suppress daytime highs below 32°C. La Niña development or unseasonal rainfall patterns would further reduce the likelihood.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.