Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data_revision_risks
Calibrated 100% · raw 170% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:15:31 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
2%
Signal Score
+1.7
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,563,192
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 170.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
20h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a low probability (0.35%) that Madrid's highest temperature on June 30, 2026, will reach 34°C, indicating skepticism about extreme heat on that specific date. Historical climate data suggests such temperatures are rare but not unprecedented for late June in the region.
Madrid could experience a heatwave by June 30, 2026, driven by persistent high-pressure systems, early-season Saharan air intrusions, or delayed monsoon patterns. Climate trends show increasing frequency of extreme temperatures in southern Europe, raising the likelihood of a 34°C day.
Temperatures in Madrid typically peak in July, with late June averages around 30-32°C. A lack of prolonged high-pressure systems or late-season cold fronts could suppress temperatures below 34°C, aligning with historical norms.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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