Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Climate data revisions (post-resolution adjustments)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:45:45 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 75.0¢
Entry: 0-3
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
10
Price history
4 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The probability of Madrid recording a highest temperature of at least 40°C on June 29, 2026, is extremely low at 0.30%, indicating minimal market confidence in extreme heat occurrence. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is highly unlikely.
A rare extreme heat event could occur due to an unprecedented atmospheric ridge or heat dome over Iberia, combined with prolonged drought conditions reducing soil moisture and amplifying temperatures. Short-term weather models may show a 5-10% chance of exceeding 40°C, but this would require near-perfect alignment of factors.
Madrid's historical June climate data shows the highest recorded temperature in June is 39.8°C (June 14, 2017), with only 3 instances of ≥38°C since 1990. Climatologically, June averages 29-31°C daily highs, with extreme heat (40°C+) rare before July. No forecast models currently project such an outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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