This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Climate data revisions (post-resolution adjustments)
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:45:45 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
0%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.8
Opportunity
0.7
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The probability of Madrid recording a highest temperature of at least 40°C on June 29, 2026, is extremely low at 0.30%, indicating minimal market confidence in extreme heat occurrence. Historical climate data and seasonal trends suggest this outcome is highly unlikely.
A rare extreme heat event could occur due to an unprecedented atmospheric ridge or heat dome over Iberia, combined with prolonged drought conditions reducing soil moisture and amplifying temperatures. Short-term weather models may show a 5-10% chance of exceeding 40°C, but this would require near-perfect alignment of factors.
Madrid's historical June climate data shows the highest recorded temperature in June is 39.8°C (June 14, 2017), with only 3 instances of ≥38°C since 1990. Climatologically, June averages 29-31°C daily highs, with extreme heat (40°C+) rare before July. No forecast models currently project such an outcome.
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Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.3% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
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