Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground
Calibrated 100% · raw 3050% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:15:44 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
55%
ORYN Consensus
24%
Signal Score
-30.5
Opportunity
25.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3050.0¢
Entry: 52-58
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
8
Price history
5 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market assigns a 26.5% probability that Madrid's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 35°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends for late June in the region. The low probability reflects the rarity of such extreme heat this early in the summer season.
A sustained high-pressure system over Iberia could drive temperatures toward 35°C, especially if preceded by a prolonged dry spell or Saharan air intrusion. Climate change trends suggest increasing likelihood of extreme heat events, though late June is historically less prone to such peaks.
Historical data shows Madrid's average high for late June is around 30-32°C, with 35°C typically occurring in July-August. Early-season heatwaves are uncommon, and cloud cover or Atlantic air masses could suppress temperatures below 35°C.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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