This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: data revisions from Wunderground
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 3:15:44 PM
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
27%
ORYN Consensus
24%
Signal Score
-2.5
Opportunity
2.1
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a 26.5% probability that Madrid's highest temperature on June 29, 2026, will reach 35°C, based on historical climate data and seasonal trends for late June in the region. The low probability reflects the rarity of such extreme heat this early in the summer season.
A sustained high-pressure system over Iberia could drive temperatures toward 35°C, especially if preceded by a prolonged dry spell or Saharan air intrusion. Climate change trends suggest increasing likelihood of extreme heat events, though late June is historically less prone to such peaks.
Historical data shows Madrid's average high for late June is around 30-32°C, with 35°C typically occurring in July-August. Early-season heatwaves are uncommon, and cloud cover or Atlantic air masses could suppress temperatures below 35°C.
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Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 26.5% while ORYN AI estimates 24%.
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