Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential weather anomalies or extreme events
AI updated 6/30/2026, 12:30:19 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
100%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,966,633
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 96-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly favors a 'yes' resolution, with a 99.50% probability that the highest temperature in Lucknow on June 30, 2026, will reach at least 32°C. Historical climate data and seasonal trends strongly support this outcome.
Lucknow typically experiences peak summer temperatures in late June, often exceeding 32°C. Climate projections for 2026 indicate above-average temperatures due to global warming trends, increasing the likelihood of this outcome. The resolution source (Wunderground) records whole-degree Celsius temperatures, ensuring precision in the market's resolution.
Unpredictable weather anomalies, such as an unusual cold spell or late monsoon onset, could suppress temperatures below 32°C. Data revisions after the initial publication may slightly alter the recorded temperature, though such changes are historically minor. Extreme localized weather events (e.g., dust storms) could also skew the maximum temperature downward.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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