This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Key risk: Late monsoon onset leading to prolonged heatwave
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:30:25 AM
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Crowd Consensus
3%
ORYN Consensus
3%
Signal Score
-0.3
Opportunity
0.3
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market assigns a low 3.15% probability to Lucknow reaching 43°C or higher on June 29, 2026, based on historical temperature trends and seasonal patterns for the region.
A bullish scenario could emerge if an early monsoon delay or extreme heatwave conditions develop in Northern India during late June, pushing temperatures above historical averages. Unusual atmospheric conditions, such as a persistent anticyclone over the region, could also contribute to extreme heat.
The bear case reflects the strong likelihood of monsoon onset by late June in Lucknow, which typically brings cooler temperatures and rainfall, reducing the probability of extreme heat. Historical data also shows that 43°C+ readings are rare in late June for this location.
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Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 29? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 3.4% while ORYN AI estimates 3%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
